Dec 8 2013
Last week I saw some comments that gold might go as low as $1100 and possibly even $1000 before or around March.
Now coupled with that was a report that India had outlawed import of gold to maintain the value of what they already had in the country.This has put prices for gold"through the roof"in India.
China is importing gold as fast as they can get it from London to Switzerland for melting into kilo sized bars before moving it to China.Swiss reports say they are working round the clock to keep up with Chinese demand.There are reports of how much is being
moved but in fact because the shipments are bound for the Chinese government,accurate reports are not possible to get.Worldwide suppliers are having trouble keeping up with the demand.
Prices have stayed low due to the liquidation demand by strapped investors with gold certificates.
I read these reports with interest realizing many are generated by gold pimps.Still,a reader can sort through the information and think about it.
That being said,tell me if I'd be wrong in this speculation.China is reported to be producing gold domestically for $2000-2500 per ounce while buying whatever they can from whomever worldwide.When the dust settles in March or April of 2014,wouldn't it be fair to assume they would want to recoup and better their cost of production?Would the new ounce price then be $2000 or more by that time?
"That time" I translate to mean the point at which the Chinese currency is more sought after and respected the the U.S.dollar.
Dec 8 2013
This Chinese government power play is a significant factor any way you describe it. He who holds the gold, holds the power. It won't be the people.
I think the gold spot price is a temperature measurement of the business of trading gold. Business is good, very good. Doesn't matter whether up or down as long as prices move. Profits for paper gold traders are easy to control, orchestrate, and direct.
$1,100 spot is sooner than we're prepared for in my opinion. Fortunes are being made shorting the metal of life. Speculation by capitalist profiteers run the spot price down and then back up. Hang-on it'll reverse direction when the powers say it's time.
I still hold a bunch of dredged river gold that came to me when spot was below $300. I sold into the $1,800 market the dredged gold which was brought-up in the recent high. My lesson is easy to understand, but difficult to do, here it is.......
Get your gold always, at any price, sell back to the market when their offer is highest.
Dec 9 2013
"Get your gold at any price" is pretty cavalier advice.An investor would like to be able to liquidate where/and when necessary, for a property purchase for example.Getting too far ahead of the pack could mean losing out during the remaining quality years of existence.
To be extreme,I'm thinking of betting on a 30% reduction in the value of a dollar by April.To act on it,I'm negotiating to buy a quantity of gold at today's spot price.I'm going to do it for this reason.
Like the Aussies,I believe in many cases production costs are too close to spot prices.Gold will no longer be feasible to mine, making existing stocks more valuable...or...interest in gold will disappear.I'm new to this game,the Chinese are not.
Dec 9 2013
When I was a young boy, we played marbles. :smile:
To play the game, you drew a circle in the dirt. Then the players placed marbles in the circle. Each player took turns shooting at the marbles. If you were fortunate to shoot at and hit a marble or marbles accurately, and knocked them out of the circle, you retained those marbles. Marbles came in different sizes, colors, and some were ball bearings made of steel.
There was no " dollar value" attached. The player with the most marbles was esteemed among his peers.
New players might enter into the "game".
They risked losing their marbles. :confused:
Some of the new players surprised the others and walked away with most of the marbles.
Players would trade marbles too! I would trade three small marbles for a "steelie".
If you didn't have any marbles you could buy them.
There were companies that produced marbles. They sold marbles for dollars.
They didn't play the game. They just produced marbles.
Dec 9 2013
Cavalier is a good description of my experience in the pursuit of understanding gold prices. Prediction of upcoming price movement has whip-sawed me enough for one life-time.
I guess I feel that old-gold is right for me to hold, older meaning lower price. I prefer to mine for what I can, at anytime, without expecting the gold prices to keep me going. I'll collect the gold because it's the gold, the prices don't concern my attitude. I know the trend continues upward.
Dec 9 2013
That being said, I can't wait for my next opportunity to mine some gold. Joy is finding a nice picker! Seeing my portfolio take a 3% increase in value-meh. But it sure beats the alternative.
Dec 9 2013
Gold production DOES affect gold prices.
All commodities are affected directly by the supply side.
The concept of supply and demand are at work at all times. If China gets all of the gold and holds it - then it drives the price higher and drives miners to produce more!
Gold is consumed! If no gold is produced, there would be no more consumption!
Who are the consumers?
66 percent of Gold is used in jewelry.
Gold has applications outside of jewelry!
Simply stated, All of the gold is consumed, some is recycled and ALL of the replacement (primary) gold comes from mining.
When we sell our gold it goes out into the world and gets played in all of the "games". Many of the games are games that involve risk. Playing the game involves chance.
What is the chance gold will continue to go lower?
Is this the bottom? Buy now? Sell now?
I am a gold miner. I know how much I PAY for gold. It doesn't always cost me the same.
In some cases, it costs me LESS!
How can a miner pay less for gold? The answer is that it always costs about the same amount of money to process a cubic yard of DIRT. So, the amount of gold in a cubic yard of dirt controls my cost of gold. This month's ICMJ magazine has an article that speaks to the process of sampling and ultimately reducing the cost of gold.
Dec 10 2013
I don't see that as a cavalier view.You can afford it or you can't.
Dec 10 2013
Dec 10 2013
You too Fleng, And if I could add this to the mix.......
Cash gained which has no backing of gold.
Keep the cash current flowing in and out of your hands. He who gets caught holding cash will suffer. The holder of physical gold will prosper. So, cash is the mule which pulls the plow which turns-up gold to gather. Hold the gold come 'ell or high water.
I think the dollar exchange rate with gold today is clearly showing that we're losing time and value when cash is held. It's irrelevant to consider the spot price other than to determine just how fast and how far we're backsliding.
Is gold spot appreciating?
In dollars yes, but right now, today, we're being expected to believe dollars are gaining and gold is losing. Short time frame yes, long time frame no. The printing presses can hardly match demand for cash. Gold is the opposite, it's as solid now as when Cleopatra gathered it.
Dec 10 2013
What I meant by saying that investing in stock was the easiest way to make cash is that it is very easy to pick a blue chip and watch it increase in cash value faster than the inflation rate. All investments should be compared to this imaginary number. If paper cash is being printed faster than new gold is being replaced the theory is that the inflation rate increases. So yes just showing a paper gain isn't enough.
The big mines must decide on "throwing good money after bad" constantly when gold prices are dropping and regulations are increasing. Us little miners must decide when to take out a new mortgage on the house to buy new equipment when the test holes show promise.
Dec 10 2013
Dec 14 2013
1 If the quantitative easing, QE, is reduced or eliminated, then the stocks will go down, the dollar will go up and gold will go down. This will also reduce the rate at which the national debt will increase.
2 Then again, maybe not.
Dec 15 2013
The way I understand it is as follows...
The purpose of QE was two fold. One, the insertion of capital into the system with printing of money. The premise is that with more money in the system, more money changing hands adds revenue to the government thru sales taxes, income taxes, and over-all economic prosperity. The mechanism involves the fed loaning printed dollars to banks at zero interest. The banks held the capital to shore up losses from failed mortgages and to be able to pass required government stress tests. The money did not go into circulation.
two, the Fed borrowed money from the IMF to dole out to investment bankers. Investment banking is a system where banks use deposits in the purchase of bonds or stocks. As long as investment bankers continue to purchase stocks at ever increasing rates, the market is driven upwards. The market is 70 percent foreign owned, therefore it takes literally billions of dollars in domestic investment in the market to push it up. The earlier invested stocks gain value as more investment is made on top of the earlier investment. The later stock investments will yield less return or no return.
The key point is that the Fed knows when the taper will occur. I believe they have already began to taper. The banks will sell off their stocks as soon as possible. The fallacy is that there may not be buyers to buy the falling stocks. The banks will be holding stocks that are worth less. The banks didn't have any "skin" in the game. The banks are obligated to pay the Fed a minimal (zero) interest on the invested funds. Some of the earlier invested funds will yield a return. The banks will get a small return.
The problem is that the Fed eventually has to pay back the IMF with minimal interest. We can assume the Fed borrows money from the IMF for less than it sells the money for. The Fed sold the money for zero percent as far as we know.
As the Fed tapers, the stock market will fall.
Since the market is 70 percent foreign owned, that will place a burden on foreign investors or foreign banks to pump it up. They are broke - except for China.
Domestic investors (the domestic banks) will jump into gold as the market heads south.
Gold is cheap now. The banks: JP Morgan, et al buy Gold!
The increased demand will drive gold prices up over the next 12 months or more!
The banks make money, because gold goes up!
The dollar will lose value because the credit rating of the Fed will be rated lower. The Fed won't be able to borrow free money from the IMF because it is too high of risk. The Fed WILL borrow money at a higher interest rate from the IMF and will only be able to lend it to banks at a higher rate. The banks will have to lend at a higher rate. That process will reduce the amount of lending, increasing the cost of doing business and that will drive gold higher.
The cost of production of gold will increase too.
Dec 15 2013
Behind the scenes:
In November, Treasury Secretary Lew visited Japan and China to visit with leaders there. The reason was to discuss their devaluation of their currencies to gain a more favorable position in global trade. Devaluation of currencies has a negative impact on the US. We have to compete in the same global market as Asia.
Last Tuesday, the Volker rule was passed. The Volker rule is named after Paul Volker, past Fed Chairman. He said it wasn't written by him. It requires stricter control and oversight of "risky proprietary banking investment".
The market started heading south on Wednesday.
Dec 15 2013
That could explain the recent ups and downs of gold.
Low prices trigger purchases and when the prices go up, most of the gold is sold at a profit and some is retained with the actual net cost of the retained gold going down.
Do this enough and you could either keep the gold for long term profits or whatever and take advantage of the market activity. That is, when you get spreads between highs and lows on a consistent basis, there's an opportunity for profit.
Dec 15 2013
You had inflation...
The Fed intervened...
You had a housing bubble...
The Fed intervened...
Then you had a market crash.
Then you had a housing crash...
The Fed intervened...
Then you had a gold bubble.
The fed intervened...
Then you had a market bubble...
Then a gold crash.
Next... :confused: ...You guessed it... a market crash...
It's crashes and bubbles...and intervention
Dec 15 2013
Dec 16 2013
Dec 16 2013
On Black Monday, the market crashed.
There were reports of people jumping off tall buildings.
I distinctly remember a report of a man in Phoenix that hung himself. (sad)
The Merry-go-round is still turning. Life goes on!
I prefer the solitary life of mining. In the remote quiet places of Alaska, each day passes without knowledge of whether a nuclear holocaust is happening or not.
Once in a while I check to see if the Merry-go-round is still turning.
Dec 18 2013
Today, outgoing Fed Chairman Bernanke held a press conference. :smile:
Certain people have an uncontrollable (subconscious) response when they lie or are deceptive under questioning.
i.e. they stutter, cannot control normal breathing pattern and wiggle in their seat.
Dec 18 2013
Could the Fed be deceptive? :confused:
Could the fed say they're tapering and not actually taper BUT buy more bonds - driving the market higher to create the ILLUSION that the "market likes" the taper?
If you DON'T think so, I have some excellent beach property for sale!
Dec 19 2013
As the spot lowers toward it's average of $700.
Many small-scale mines shutdown operations. Leasee's see their bottom-lines differently than do mine owners. Fixed costs of ownership don't seem to mind the $700 spot whereas the contract miner's variable costs turn him upside down.
Soooo, owning the ground while selling-off the equipment and dropping labor will result? Looks probable.
Now, if mine owner stores his gold below ground unmined. He easily waits for the market to improve (always does). But the actual miner goes broke.
Dec 19 2013
72 percent see the economy improving.
Dec 19 2013
At this moment spot is in the $1100s and trending lower.
Truth be known, rarely do miners agree with the majority anyway.
Will the Ophir Gold Mines be operating within the average spot price of $600 - $800?
Dec 20 2013
You wouldn't believe me if I told you. :confused:
Dec 20 2013
Dec. 20, 2013 10:30 AM EST - Buy Fear / Sell Greed
The taper was only $10 Billion of $85 Billion per month. This was nothing more than perception management by the Fed. Nothing has fundamentally changed. Sentiment is terrible. Time for Gold and Silver to move higher?
Dec 21 2013
Dec 21 2013
The high volume operations not so much. Start-ups and low margin miners can't support mine owners at $1000 spot.
Whatever cash or non-gold asset I can gamble with will be looking for ground to acquire from folks who need to head a different direction. It'll be more of a wait and see holding pattern.
Debt loads for miners (not owners) ought to be erased. The revenue/debt ratio that worked at above average spot prices can devour small-scale miners at average spot. Percentage agreements are out the window. Day-wage plus expenses is looking best to me.
Dec 21 2013
if the double bottom (low june 27 and dec 19) do not hold, it will get directly to the first real support line @ $1000, its also a huge psychological mark.
gold weekly chart 5 years
my personel thinking is, some time around end 2014 gold will tank to the second support line @ around $650
gold monthly chart 15 years
Dec 21 2013
Dec 24 2013
Société Générale Strategist Albert Edwards says gold will top $10,000 per ounce (with the S&P 500 Index tumbling to 450 and Treasuries yielding less than 1%).
Edwards doesn't actually give a date to quantify his statement but, it's on it's way.
Dec 27 2013
Financial analyst Rob Kirby says, “There is colossal fraud and price control going on. There are no free markets.” Kirby goes on to say, “What we’ve seen over the last six months is a ramp-up in interest rate swaps to the tune of $12 trillion . . . . What the build in these interest rate swaps is achieving, it’s stemming the rise in interest rates.”
Kirby, who has 15 years experience in trading derivatives, says these complicated derivatives overseen by the U.S. Treasury control the price of virtually everything. Kirby contends, “I refer to this as a price control grid. They are able to dictate and arbitrarily set the price of all strategic goods in the market, whether it’s capitol, whether it’s energy or whether it’s precious metals.”
As an example of control, Kirby explains, “We have 10-year U.S. bond rates under 3%, and I would say the United States is actually insolvent, and we have countries like Greece where 10-year bonds are yielding over 9%.” When does this end? Kirby points to the finite physical gold market and massive Chinese global buying for a clue.
Kirby says, “When China doesn’t get their gold, that’s when this ends, and that might be when we have a war.”
Dec 27 2013
Derivatives can be used either for risk management (i.e. to "hedge" by providing offsetting compensation in case of an undesired event, a kind of "insurance") or for speculation (i.e. making a financial "bet"). This distinction is important.--wiki
Just keep grasp of the insurance and speculation which derivatives enhance. The financial size of today's derivative market is roughly $700 trillion, which is ten times the size of the world's GDP.
I like to equate it to jokers playing jokers.
Jan 5 2014
Le Metropole Members,
Did the Bundesbank get even a little of its original gold back?
Submitted by cpowell on 12:00PM ET Saturday, January 4, 2014. Section: Daily Dispatches
3:49p ET Saturday, January 4, 2014
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Correspondence between the German financial journalist Lars Schall and Germany's Bundesbank suggests that the small amount of gold the Bundesbank claims recently to have repatriated from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York was not returned in the form in which it was deposited many years ago -- that, indeed, the original German gold was not and is not available to be returned because something undisclosed was done with it.
Schall's correspondence with the Bundesbank is appended along with a statement by Peter Boehringer of the German Precious Metal Society and a leader of the movement in Germany seeking repatriation of the country's gold supposedly vaulted abroad, who raises questions the Bundesbank has yet to answer.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
* * *
December 26, 2013
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen:
I am an independent financial journalist.
In connection with the transfer of 37 tons of Bundesbank gold from New York to Germany, I came across the news that the bars were a melted before the transfer. May I kindly ask you for the following information:
Why were the bars melted at all? And why couldn't that wait until the bars arrived in Frankfurt?
* * *
January 3, 2014
Dear Mr Schall:
Thank you for your enquiry.
At a press conference on the topic of Germany's gold reserves on 16 January 2013, Executive Board member Carl-Ludwig Thiele presented the Deutsche Bundesbank's new storage concept. In addition to the relocation of gold bars, this concept includes, amongst other things, measures to ensure that the specifications of the London Good Delivery (LGD) standard are met. You can find these specifications on Page 17 of the following presentation:
Storage plan (new)
..................... 2012 ........... 2020
Frankfurt ....... 31% ............ 50%
New York ....... 45% ............ 37%
London .......... 13% ............ 13%
Paris .............. 11% .............. 0%
-- Phased relocation of 300 tonnes of gold from New York to Frankfurt.
-- Phased relocation of 374 tonnes of gold from Paris to Frankfurt.
-- Achieve LGD standard, where this is not already the case.
You can find the specifications for the London Good Delivery (LGD) standard at the following address:
In cases where these specifications were not already met, the Bundesbank had these original gold bars melted down and recast in order to meet this standard. This was achieved without any difficulties.
Please understand that in order to ensure the security of the gold transports and our employees, the Bundesbank is unable to provide you with any further information.
60431 Frankfurt am Main
Tel.: +49 69 9566x3511 or 3512
* * *
Statement by Peter Boehringer, president of German Precious Metal Society and co-initiator of the Repatriate our Gold campaign --
-- on the Bundesbank's response.
Why does the Bundesbank continue to avoid transparency regarding Germany's gold holdings?
Why not just come up with easy-to-deliver facts instead of repeated rhetoric about an alleged remelting of gold bars in the United States that even people with some knowledge of the gold industry and some common sense fail to understand?
There is no reason why the original gold bars acquired in the 1950s and 1960s (if they ever existed at all, which has never been proven, as by publication of bar lists or photos) had to be melted down and recast into LGD-compliant bars in New York as opposed to Frankfurt. Nor is there reason why all this had to be done in obscurity without any published report of the recasting.
The public is still waiting for answers to crucial questions like these:
-- What kind of gold bars were melted? Original material from the 1950s and '60s?
-- How can the Bundesbank hint in its press release that some of the old bars already met the LGD specifications when those specifications were not defined and made a standard for central bank bars until 1979?
-- Why has the Bundesbank not published a bar number list of the old bars? How can there be security concerns about bars that no longer exist? Why has the Bundesbank not published a bar number list of the newly cast bars?
-- Who exactly melted the bars? Where exactly was this melting performed? Is there a smelter at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York?
-- Who witnessed the melting and recasting of the bars?
-- Are there any reports on this in writing with a valid signature? By whom?
-- And especially: Why was it deemed necessary to perform this action in the United States as opposed to Frankfurt or nearby Hanau, where there are some of the best facilities in the world for metal probing, melting, and recasting? Had these actions been performed in Germany in a fully transparent manner, it would have been so easy for the Bundesbank to dismiss all questions from "paranoid gold conspiracy theorists."
The Bundesbank is just the custodian of Germany's national gold, which is worth more than $125 billion. The Bundesbank owes the public full transparency in all these gold matters. That is, physical audits, independently verified storage reports, and a publication of the full bar lists of all its gold in all national or international vaults.
Despite having now had the excellent opportunity of this partial repatriation, the Bundesbank has again failed to produce any proof or indication that at least 37 tonnes (out of 1,500 tonnes of German gold at the New York Fed) still existed through 2013 in their original 1950s-'60s bar form. Instead, Germany is now owner of almost 3,000 LGD-compliant standard bars, which proves nothing and dismisses no allegations of decade-long manipulation of the gold price.
It is still possible and even probable that the old German bars were lent into the market long ago or that they have multiple owners or are backing multiple gold exchange-traded fund derivatives. Of course the same holds for our remaining 120,000 bars at the New York Fed.
The "repatriation" of a mere 1.5 percent of Germany's foreign gold holdings and the supposed melting and recasting of the original gold bars do not prove the continued existence of Germany's remaining gold holdings supposedly vaulted at the New York Fed.
The Bundesbank has missed a great opportunity to bring transparency to Germany's gold reserves. What a pity. And at its current speed the Bundesbank will require 60 years to accomplish the repatriation mission forced upon it by an impatient public. What a shame.
The initiators of the Repatriate Our Gold campaign --
-- are considering legal action based on freedom-of-information law against the Bundesbank and possibly also against its auditors, who have certified the Bundesbank's balance sheet without having adequately considered the risks associated with a non-transparent gold hoard, which is the only asset of substance on the Bundesbank's books. (Ninety percent of those assets are mere paper claims, many of dubious quality, like "Target 2" claims.)
Our objective remains to achieve the publication of all gold bar lists and full transparency involving Germany's gold. The German people are entitled to have all information about their golden property.
And the American people have a right to know as well. After all, it is the U.S. Federal Reserve System and the U.S. Treasury Department that have been obscuring their gold holdings and foreign gold holdings since the last proper audit in 1953.
Jan 5 2014
About two years ago,partially tungsten filled ingots were showing up in the gold trading area of New York City.There was nothing to indicate these reports were bogus and the article went on to display samples which turned up.It was suggested that the larger gold bars stored at the Federal Reserve might be suspect as well.
At that time,it was fashionable to install a safe in your home and place more of your savings,about 25%,in physical gold.
I believe this bogus gold put the whammy to what seemed like a smart move for many.
It wasn't long after that, storing a country's wealth in our secure vaults became less popular.I know that calls to audit the Fed seem to go nowhere and now comments about empty vaults seem to be circulating more often.
I have been reading every post to this thread and I am following all comments regarding the future of gold prices.
This one is especially interesting.Trusting that what you have in your vault is genuine gold is absolutely essential.When buyers feel they have no guarantee of that,it certainly becomes less attractive.
Jan 5 2014
Last summer I had a group of Chinese that I was driving around.Our next stop after picking them up at the hotel was
the beach where tubs and "salted" sand were located.The tourists know ahead of time that gold will be found in the host sand because they are told that.It is gold of the type found from dredging because that is where it came from.The purpose is to give them a shot at panning and providing them with a souvenir.My job is to see they have a memorable experience, which I enjoy doing.
Anyway,we were all in the hotel lobby waiting for the remaining visitors to come downstairs.I had dealt with them in the morning and I found they were a receptive and lively group with no pretenses.
I was going to prep them for the gold portion of the tour.To do so,I brought along a set of dowsing rods and 3-4ozs.of gold in a bottle.
I figured I'd give them a magic show while they waited to board.
After checking to see that there would be no interference from underlying pipes or cables beneath the floor,I set the bottle on the carpet.They stood back in awe knowing how much was in the bottle....and that I,a busdriver,was placing it on the floor in front of them as if it were the norm.
As I passed over the bottle the rods responded and the chattering group applauded.I let them use the rods to do the same thing...until I was asked if I could open the bus door for a parcel left inside.
I handed the rods to another person,told them I'd be right back,and left hem there with the gold on the floor.
There was the hush I expected and I turned away leaving them there.The bus was only 25' or so away and I was back in the lobby in about 30 seconds.They were having an animated gab and seemed quite happy and then they were all ready to roll.
I picked up the gold,retrieved the rods and I was about to lead the crowd out.From the middle of the crowd came an old man with checkbook in hand and he advanced quickly.He wanted to buy the gold without hesitation.Their interpreter explained to me if I was interested,it could be done.
I told them that I was not selling and just returned it to my pocket.I just wanted to leave them with something to think about regarding the land of the free,mutual respect and our true values.
It was nice to see there is a market for the dust however.There was no guess work about what they were looking at either.
Jan 6 2014
Jan 6 2014
A quarter pound poke of placer gold can be held and easily recognized as genuine gold. Can't say the same once the same gold has been passed through the system of money-changers. We used to respect US and Canadian gold coins as solid gold, now we begin to realize the deck is stacked and you-know-who is on the short-end of the arrangement.
I've been over and over this topic about real gold. I've boiled it down to this......
Native gold, freshly mined from Earth, is the only real gold. Placer gold is my top of the food-chain.
After middlemen get involved, nobody really knows for sure what is the fine. I think it's safe to say that man manipulates his stockpiles of refined gold in his own best interest.
Jan 6 2014
The man understood but still elected to walk out of the downtown office with 76 pounds of gold bars in his backpack.
I guess I'd at least get a brinks truck and a few bonded guards before I risk an armed robbery costing me a million bucks in gold.
Jan 6 2014
Anybody doubt that it will go back up? One smart cookie as I see it. Any body want to buy some Treasury's?
Jan 18 2014
The Hows and Whys of Gold Price Manipulation
By: Paul Craig Roberts| January 17, 2014 | Categories: Articles & Columns | Tags: gold manipularion, | Print This Article Print This Article
Paul Craig Roberts and Dave Kranzler.
The deregulation of the financial system during the Clinton and George W. Bush regimes had the predictable result: financial concentration and reckless behavior. A handful of banks grew so large that financial authorities declared them “too big to fail.” Removed from market discipline, the banks became wards of the government requiring massive creation of new money by the Federal Reserve in order to support through the policy of Quantitative Easing the prices of financial instruments on the banks’ balance sheets and in order to finance at low interest rates trillion dollar federal budget deficits associated with the long recession caused by the financial crisis.
The Fed’s policy of monetizing one trillion dollars of bonds annually put pressure on the US dollar, the value of which declined in terms of gold. When gold hit $1,900 per ounce in 2011, the Federal Reserve realized that $2,000 per ounce could have a psychological impact that would spread into the dollar’s exchange rate with other currencies, resulting in a run on the dollar as both foreign and domestic holders sold dollars to avoid the fall in value. Once this realization hit, the manipulation of the gold price moved beyond central bank leasing of gold to bullion dealers in order to create an artificial market supply to absorb demand that otherwise would have pushed gold prices higher. The manipulation consists of the Fed using bullion banks as its agents to sell naked gold shorts in the New York Comex futures market. Short selling drives down the gold price, triggers stop-loss orders and margin calls, and scares participants out of the gold trusts. The bullion banks purchase the deserted shares and present them to the trusts for redemption in bullion. The bullion can then be sold in the London physical gold market, where the sales both ratify the lower price that short-selling achieved on the Comex floor and provide a supply of bullion to meet Asian demands for physical gold as opposed to paper claims on gold.
Jan 20 2014
Now back to Youtube and more feel good talk from Jim Sinclair.
Feb 10 2014
More from the same guy:
Readers have asked if gold can continue to be shorted on the Comex once no gold is left for delivery. From what we have seen–the fixing of the LIBOR rate, the London gold price, foreign exchange rates, the price of bonds and the manipulation of gold and stock market futures prices–we don’t know what the limit is to the ability of the Fed, the Treasury, the Plunge Protection Team, the Exchange Stabilization Fund, and the banks to manipulate the markets.
Feb 10 2014
"The principle we must keep in mind is that two people cannot both be the exclusive owner of the same thing at the same time. Yet fractional reserve banking operates on the theory that bank account holder A and borrower B can both own the same money at the same time. This practice is just as fraudulent as selling two buyers the same vacation home and giving them both exclusive title to the home and hoping that they don't both show up to use it the same weekend. With fractional reserve banking, titles to money (gold) are spuriously created, meaning there are more titles to property than there is actual property. In fact, no new money is created, but the number of titles to existing money is expanded. And it is in this manner that the value of the dollar is diminished. In the absence of a gold standard, the crime is exceeded today to the point of absurdity, as only titles themselves are traded with no tie to any real property whatsoever. We have been swindled." -
Feb 15 2014
Some comments on Sinclair in ZH.
I myself chose to give Sinclair a pass. Obviously the take down in gold was a planned and coordinated event by the government, or someone who has been deemed above the law by the government. And obviously there were some privy to the planned action. Those folks are now hailed as the great prognosticators of the metals, the slimeball Armstrong comes to mind, because their "calls" were somehow remarkably prescient. Obviously Sinclair is outside the system and works against the PTB, which makes him a target. I don't doubt in the least some of the take downs I've seen in the past were timed to make Sinclair look like a fool. Right or wrong, I'll stand with Sinclair any day. He, IMO, is a man of character and that comes before all else to me.
Feb 16 2014
I don't know what it all means but the parts I can understand certainly look good. This guy tells it like it is.
Feb 17 2014
This is in part a reaction to the questionable banking practices exhibited Stateside.
I too am sorting out terms used but this point comes to mind when I couple this material you've cited with other commentaries elsewhere.
1)China is buying and the public is once again looking at the purchase of physical gold.Demand is high and producers are struggling to keep up.
1)Previously, manipulated gold prices assured those who sold promised gold that they could make good
on delivery at some point without busting the bank.Now demands are being made for physical gold by depositors and China is buying fast and furiously at the same time.Low prices on gold will soon be history and the Chinese exchanges will gain the respect they need by providing a stable environment for the investor.
Maybe some of their own industrialists will repatriate some of that money they have stored offshore,turn it into gold,and bring it home to China....:smile:
Feb 17 2014
gold prices will soon be history." When cost of production is too high for the miner,gold stops flowing in.Ok,so the market throws us a few more crumbs.Mining starts again and the miner once again gets a raise.But,the dollar now buys less fuel, so more dollars are needed anyway in order to operate.Wages go up,and all operating expenses go up.
The miner is right back where he was so what difference does it make to him if "low gold prices will soon be history."
Gold prices have to come waaaaay up yet.This Chinese feeding frenzy may have started something since it is coupled with a worldwide devaluation of currency.My guess is $2-2500 by late Fall 2014 ....what that kind of money will buy by then is a different story.
Feb 20 2014
Feb 20 2014
That would mean he has tied them down to a contract far in advance.I'm beginning to see the ins and outs.It would also indicate that my guess(based on what I've read...someplace... including that actual range of $2-2500 by autumn of 2014) might be a bit premature. We'll see!
As far as I'm concerned, $1500 doesn't begin to cut it anymore.
Feb 20 2014
A must see cool graphic I just found:
I would like to see the size of the hole it all came out of though.
Feb 21 2014
"When Gold reaches $3110/oz, 1 oz of Gold & a $100 bill will have equal value in weight and it won't matter if you have 1oz of $100 bills or 1oz of Gold."---link
Now let me see........
My Levi pants pocket feels nice with gold inside it. I really don't want to lead around a pack-mule in order to carry enough cash. I'll ignore cash and pack the mining tools to keep my pocket lined with the real deal.
I believe that those of us who love the chase of placer gold, ought to spend down cash while the cash can still buy something of value.
Feb 22 2014
Your Levi's be charging you rent for pocket space!
Feb 22 2014
February 21, 2014
Shocking Trip Down The Rabbit Hole Of U.S. Secrets & Gold
With so much chaos taking place around the world, today King World News spoke to the man who has been focused on uncovering sensitive government and market information for over 15 years. What he had to say will shock KWN readers around the world. Chris Powell covered everything from secret US government deals to China’s insatiable desire to accumulate gold, and the trip down the rabbit hole involves former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, former US Treasury Secretary Henry ‘Hank’ Paulson, and the incoming Chinese President Xi Jinping. Below is what Powell had to say in this remarkable interview.
Eric King: “I want to go back to the gold smash which took place in April last year, because former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and former US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson are reported to have traveled to China to meet with the new president of China, Xi Jinping, that month. Your thoughts on this meeting taking place the same month the gold price was crushed.”
Powell: “There are a number of State Department documents showing that Kissinger, as secretary of state, was very much involved in the US policy of gold price suppression in the early 1970s.
There are some very interesting minutes showing that gold price suppression was explained in great detail in a meeting in his office with his assistants....
“So Kissinger knows what is going on here. The gold smash last April was so intensely executed that it had to have been planned long before Kissinger and Paulson arrived in China.
In the late 1990s there was speculation that an agreement was made between the United States and the Middle-Eastern oil producers to exchange cheap oil for cheap gold. This was near the bottom of the gold and oil bear markets. The oil producers knew they had a wasting asset in the ground and they wanted to get something permanent for it -- something that would hold its value.
These are savvy and well-connected people who knew that paper money was not going to hold its value and they had a predisposition toward gold anyway and they were happy to accept it as payment.
The US wanted a low gold price to support the dollar and so there was a notion that this was cheap oil in exchange for cheap gold. Regardless, there is enormous documentation of gold price suppression involving the Western central banks and particularly the U.S. government.
Such an arrangement would match what William Kaye postulated yesterday in his KWN interview about an arrangement between the United States and China. So there may well be an arrangement between China and the United States allowing China to accumulate gold at cheap prices.
This allows China to hedge its large holdings of dollar-based foreign-exchange reserves, and such an arrangement would make sense not only in a general policy framework but also as a practical matter from what we see in the foreign exchange markets.
China has the largest foreign exchange surplus in the world, roughly $3 trillion. If you accept that, then you have to accept that nothing happens in any major market without China’s consent. With a foreign exchange surplus like that, China can run any market it wants to. China can run the Treasury bond market, the oil market, the gold market, the copper market, and so forth. With that kind of surplus, nothing happens in any major market that China doesn’t want to happen.
A couple of years ago China's interest in acquiring gold was noted and It was said that there was a ‘Chinese put’ under the gold market. Well, we saw last April that the ‘Chinese put’ disappeared on April 12 and 15, during a time when the gold price was driven down hundreds of dollars. I don’t think that could have happened without China’s complicity.
I suspect strongly, as Kaye does, that the plunge in gold last April was an intervention involving the United States, its allies, and China. As part of that intervention, China would have agreed not to exercise the ‘Chinese put’ in the gold market but rather to allow the West to drive the price down by hundreds of dollars so that China might acquire a lot more gold cheaply.
This had the effect of liquidating much of the remaining private gold holdings in the West, particularly the gold in the GLD exchange-traded fund. All the data shows that large amounts of gold were sent from London to Switzerland, where it was re-refined into Chinese-standard gold bars, and then shipped to China.
So we know there has been this huge flow of gold from London into China since the attack on gold last April. This points to a deal being made between China and the West, and the timing of that trip by Henry Kissinger and Henry Paulson just adds fuel to that speculation.”
Eric King: “Chris, what is the end game with regards to the West hemorrhaging away its gold to China?”
Powell: “The end game is probably a great revaluation of gold to a fairly spectacular level and re-liquefaction of the central banks that have gold. This will greatly devalue the world’s major currencies and relieve the Western world of much of its debt burden.
A year or so ago two fund manager in New York, Paul Brodsky and Lee Quaintance, wrote a paper speculating that for the last few years central banks have been involved in a scheme of redistributing gold reserves to compensate the nations that have held their reserves disproportionately in dollars. China would be key to that scheme.
Interestingly, right now I am involved in a struggle with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. I obtained a copy of speech given by a former vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, H. David Willey, in which he said the Federal Reserve Bank of New York provides gold accounts to banks that are members of the Federal Reserve System.
This indicates much greater involvement by the Federal Reserve in the gold trade. The New York Fed has refused to answer my question about Willey's assertion: Does the New York Fed provide gold accounts to bullion banks or not, or did the New York Fed used to provide such accounts? I've asked my congressmen to try to get the answer for me out of the New York Fed.
Regardless, Western central banks are deeply involved in the gold market. The Bank of France told a meeting of the London Bullion Market Association in Rome a year ago that the bank trades gold nearly every day. Why is that? The answer involves manipulation of the gold and currency markets.
So when you take a trip down the rabbit hole to examine a possible deal between the West and China, you have to suspect that gold again will be at the center of the world financial system before too long, and China knows it must have thousands of tons of gold to shift the power from West to East. One way or another it looks like China is going to get that gold, and the power.”
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Feb 23 2014
Feb 26 2014
"The developments are bullish for gold prices as various bitcoin exchanges had captured capital flows from investors and speculators who are skeptical of the current financial and monetary system and many of whom would have previously have bought gold and silver. Some of this capital is more likely to flow into gold in the coming months"
Mar 2 2014
Mar 24 2014
Mar 31 2014
It is just a matter of time until China's gold backed currency comes to the top. That time may have been hastened by Angela Merckel's announcement that Chinese yuan will now be accepted as payment for goods.
Debased,watered down currencies around the world will take a back seat to that of China and gold prices will rise as people get rid of their paper. What the US government does in response remains to be seen.
The comments that followed Murphy's article are very worthwhile reading.
Apr 1 2014
This bolsters the possibility of a $2000 gold oz. by year's end and a $1550 value if Russia decides to accept anything but dollars for its oil.That figure would be reached almost immediately.
It's all there in a 4o+ minutes video titled...."Jim Sinclair:Russia Can Collapse US Economy,Gold Update"
Apr 1 2014
One of these guys is going to end up being right. Too bad I sold the bulk of my gold for around 300 bucks. But hey, the jokes on them because I enjoyed being a gold slave! It was the gold that owned me not them. Most of the time I had no idea what the price of gold was till just before I poured it out.
Apr 3 2014
Then....JPM backs off.
Apr 5 2014
Unearthing worlds gold supply.