Lost Password :: Posting Pictures :: Who's Online :: Stats :: Memberlist :: Top Posters :: Search
:: :: Thoughts on gold prices.
Unsubscribe From Newsletter



Welcome, Register :: Log In Welcome to our newest member, Agent67.
Users active in this forum:
Users active in this thread: Guest

1 people online in the last 1 minutes - 0 members, 0 anon and 1 guests. (Most ever was 29 at 13:36:32 Sat Aug 3 2002)

Pages: [ 1 2 3 ]

[ Notify of replies made to this post ][ Print ][ Send To Friend ] [ Watch ] [ < ] [ Add Reply ] [ > ]

peluk
03:09:19 Sun
Dec 8 2013

Offline
1433 posts
Reply
Thoughts on gold prices.

Late this past Summer,I read where one or two Australian gold mines had ceased operation when production costs equaled the gold price.
Last week I saw some comments that gold might go as low as $1100 and possibly even $1000 before or around March.

Now coupled with that was a report that India had outlawed import of gold to maintain the value of what they already had in the country.This has put prices for gold"through the roof"in India.

China is importing gold as fast as they can get it from London to Switzerland for melting into kilo sized bars before moving it to China.Swiss reports say they are working round the clock to keep up with Chinese demand.There are reports of how much is being
moved but in fact because the shipments are bound for the Chinese government,accurate reports are not possible to get.Worldwide suppliers are having trouble keeping up with the demand.
Prices have stayed low due to the liquidation demand by strapped investors with gold certificates.

I read these reports with interest realizing many are generated by gold pimps.Still,a reader can sort through the information and think about it.
That being said,tell me if I'd be wrong in this speculation.China is reported to be producing gold domestically for $2000-2500 per ounce while buying whatever they can from whomever worldwide.When the dust settles in March or April of 2014,wouldn't it be fair to assume they would want to recoup and better their cost of production?Would the new ounce price then be $2000 or more by that time?
"That time" I translate to mean the point at which the Chinese currency is more sought after and respected the the U.S.dollar.






  
Rod_Seiad
17:50:41 Sun
Dec 8 2013

Offline
1 posts
Reply
Re: Thoughts on gold prices.

The people of India who continue to gather gold are the investor's of the Earth. The government attempts to alter their culture will fail. The gold and the people will not be denied.

This Chinese government power play is a significant factor any way you describe it. He who holds the gold, holds the power. It won't be the people.

I think the gold spot price is a temperature measurement of the business of trading gold. Business is good, very good. Doesn't matter whether up or down as long as prices move. Profits for paper gold traders are easy to control, orchestrate, and direct.

$1,100 spot is sooner than we're prepared for in my opinion. Fortunes are being made shorting the metal of life. Speculation by capitalist profiteers run the spot price down and then back up. Hang-on it'll reverse direction when the powers say it's time.

I still hold a bunch of dredged river gold that came to me when spot was below $300. I sold into the $1,800 market the dredged gold which was brought-up in the recent high. My lesson is easy to understand, but difficult to do, here it is.......

Get your gold always, at any price, sell back to the market when their offer is highest.

  
peluk
05:42:47 Mon
Dec 9 2013

Offline
1433 posts
Reply
Re: Thoughts on gold prices.

Rod,it doesn't appear the Chinese government is standing in the way of any private purchases and the population seems to be purchasing quite readily.
"Get your gold at any price" is pretty cavalier advice.An investor would like to be able to liquidate where/and when necessary, for a property purchase for example.Getting too far ahead of the pack could mean losing out during the remaining quality years of existence.

To be extreme,I'm thinking of betting on a 30% reduction in the value of a dollar by April.To act on it,I'm negotiating to buy a quantity of gold at today's spot price.I'm going to do it for this reason.
Like the Aussies,I believe in many cases production costs are too close to spot prices.Gold will no longer be feasible to mine, making existing stocks more valuable...or...interest in gold will disappear.I'm new to this game,the Chinese are not.

  
geowizard
17:02:47 Mon
Dec 9 2013

Offline
posts
Reply
Re: Thoughts on gold prices.

A common sense view:

When I was a young boy, we played marbles. :smile:

To play the game, you drew a circle in the dirt. Then the players placed marbles in the circle. Each player took turns shooting at the marbles. If you were fortunate to shoot at and hit a marble or marbles accurately, and knocked them out of the circle, you retained those marbles. Marbles came in different sizes, colors, and some were ball bearings made of steel.

There was no " dollar value" attached. The player with the most marbles was esteemed among his peers.

New players might enter into the "game".

They risked losing their marbles. :confused:

Some of the new players surprised the others and walked away with most of the marbles.

Players would trade marbles too! I would trade three small marbles for a "steelie".

Added content:

If you didn't have any marbles you could buy them.

There were companies that produced marbles. They sold marbles for dollars.

They didn't play the game. They just produced marbles.

:welcome:

- Geowizard
[1 edits; Last edit by geowizard at 17:15:59 Mon Dec 9 2013]

  
Rod_Seiad
17:15:00 Mon
Dec 9 2013

Offline
1 posts
Reply
Re: Thoughts on gold prices.

I bump my head on this conception some folks hold, whereas, gold production affects gold prices. That's not true. It's the chicken or the egg. Ownership of physical gold is everything according to my thinking, paper trading gold is a man-made one-way trip to ruin.

Cavalier is a good description of my experience in the pursuit of understanding gold prices. Prediction of upcoming price movement has whip-sawed me enough for one life-time.

I guess I feel that old-gold is right for me to hold, older meaning lower price. I prefer to mine for what I can, at anytime, without expecting the gold prices to keep me going. I'll collect the gold because it's the gold, the prices don't concern my attitude. I know the trend continues upward.

  
Fleng
19:35:11 Mon
Dec 9 2013

Offline
26 posts
Reply
Re: Thoughts on gold prices.

I prefer to invest in stock and bulk silver and (when possible) mine for gold. The unseen forces that affect gold pricing can be deadly for the small investor. Silver will always maintain it's industrial needs unlike gold which depends upon consumer vanity. The easiest way to make money is investing in stocks in a bull market which we are in now. It can be argued that the hardest way to make money is by mining gold in a bull market.
That being said, I can't wait for my next opportunity to mine some gold. Joy is finding a nice picker! Seeing my portfolio take a 3% increase in value-meh. But it sure beats the alternative.

  
geowizard
23:05:59 Mon
Dec 9 2013

Offline
posts
Reply
Re: Thoughts on gold prices.


Gold production DOES affect gold prices.

All commodities are affected directly by the supply side.

The concept of supply and demand are at work at all times. If China gets all of the gold and holds it - then it drives the price higher and drives miners to produce more!

Gold is consumed! If no gold is produced, there would be no more consumption!

Who are the consumers?

66 percent of Gold is used in jewelry.
http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/gold/mcs-2013-gold.pdf

Gold has applications outside of jewelry!

Simply stated, All of the gold is consumed, some is recycled and ALL of the replacement (primary) gold comes from mining.

When we sell our gold it goes out into the world and gets played in all of the "games". Many of the games are games that involve risk. Playing the game involves chance.

What is the chance gold will continue to go lower?

Is this the bottom? Buy now? Sell now?

I am a gold miner. I know how much I PAY for gold. It doesn't always cost me the same.

In some cases, it costs me LESS!

How can a miner pay less for gold? The answer is that it always costs about the same amount of money to process a cubic yard of DIRT. So, the amount of gold in a cubic yard of dirt controls my cost of gold. This month's ICMJ magazine has an article that speaks to the process of sampling and ultimately reducing the cost of gold.

- Geowizard
[2 edits; Last edit by geowizard at 00:17:43 Tue Dec 10 2013]

  
peluk
01:05:54 Tue
Dec 10 2013

Offline
1433 posts
Reply
Re: Thoughts on gold prices.

Ok Rod,I missed your meaning.You were talking about mining the gold whenever you could no matter the price as opposed to buying at any price.
I don't see that as a cavalier view.You can afford it or you can't.

  
peluk
01:54:57 Tue
Dec 10 2013

Offline
1433 posts
Reply
Re: Thoughts on gold prices.

Fleng,I see your point about 'the best way to make money being to invest in stock in a bull market',my question is this.What does it profit you to make money that is losing value since it has little or no backing?

  
Rod_Seiad
16:55:28 Tue
Dec 10 2013

Offline
1 posts
Reply
Re: Thoughts on gold prices.

Thanks peluk,

You too Fleng, And if I could add this to the mix.......

Cash gained which has no backing of gold.
Keep the cash current flowing in and out of your hands. He who gets caught holding cash will suffer. The holder of physical gold will prosper. So, cash is the mule which pulls the plow which turns-up gold to gather. Hold the gold come 'ell or high water.

I think the dollar exchange rate with gold today is clearly showing that we're losing time and value when cash is held. It's irrelevant to consider the spot price other than to determine just how fast and how far we're backsliding.

Is gold spot appreciating?
In dollars yes, but right now, today, we're being expected to believe dollars are gaining and gold is losing. Short time frame yes, long time frame no. The printing presses can hardly match demand for cash. Gold is the opposite, it's as solid now as when Cleopatra gathered it.


  
Fleng
17:41:06 Tue
Dec 10 2013

Offline
26 posts
Reply
Re: Thoughts on gold prices.

peluk- At the end of the day cash cannot be eaten but then again neither can gold. Until then like Rod said it is but a mule to exchange for the things we do need.
What I meant by saying that investing in stock was the easiest way to make cash is that it is very easy to pick a blue chip and watch it increase in cash value faster than the inflation rate. All investments should be compared to this imaginary number. If paper cash is being printed faster than new gold is being replaced the theory is that the inflation rate increases. So yes just showing a paper gain isn't enough.
The big mines must decide on "throwing good money after bad" constantly when gold prices are dropping and regulations are increasing. Us little miners must decide when to take out a new mortgage on the house to buy new equipment when the test holes show promise.

  
dmort
18:25:30 Tue
Dec 10 2013

Offline
3 posts
Reply
Re: Thoughts on gold prices.

Gold and other precious metals have always been a hedge against an economic collapse.Its no different today.In fact I think we run a very real danger of runaway inflation due to the unbridled printing of dollars.

  
baub
23:32:39 Sat
Dec 14 2013

Offline
915 posts
Reply
Re: Thoughts on gold prices.

I'm going to throw my hat chock full of ignorance into the pot. Here goes:

1 If the quantitative easing, QE, is reduced or eliminated, then the stocks will go down, the dollar will go up and gold will go down. This will also reduce the rate at which the national debt will increase.

2 Then again, maybe not.

b

  
geowizard
01:19:13 Sun
Dec 15 2013

Offline
posts
Reply
Re: Thoughts on gold prices.

baub,

The way I understand it is as follows...

The purpose of QE was two fold. One, the insertion of capital into the system with printing of money. The premise is that with more money in the system, more money changing hands adds revenue to the government thru sales taxes, income taxes, and over-all economic prosperity. The mechanism involves the fed loaning printed dollars to banks at zero interest. The banks held the capital to shore up losses from failed mortgages and to be able to pass required government stress tests. The money did not go into circulation.

two, the Fed borrowed money from the IMF to dole out to investment bankers. Investment banking is a system where banks use deposits in the purchase of bonds or stocks. As long as investment bankers continue to purchase stocks at ever increasing rates, the market is driven upwards. The market is 70 percent foreign owned, therefore it takes literally billions of dollars in domestic investment in the market to push it up. The earlier invested stocks gain value as more investment is made on top of the earlier investment. The later stock investments will yield less return or no return.

The key point is that the Fed knows when the taper will occur. I believe they have already began to taper. The banks will sell off their stocks as soon as possible. The fallacy is that there may not be buyers to buy the falling stocks. The banks will be holding stocks that are worth less. The banks didn't have any "skin" in the game. The banks are obligated to pay the Fed a minimal (zero) interest on the invested funds. Some of the earlier invested funds will yield a return. The banks will get a small return.

The problem is that the Fed eventually has to pay back the IMF with minimal interest. We can assume the Fed borrows money from the IMF for less than it sells the money for. The Fed sold the money for zero percent as far as we know.

As the Fed tapers, the stock market will fall.

Since the market is 70 percent foreign owned, that will place a burden on foreign investors or foreign banks to pump it up. They are broke - except for China.

Domestic investors (the domestic banks) will jump into gold as the market heads south.

Gold is cheap now. The banks: JP Morgan, et al buy Gold!

The increased demand will drive gold prices up over the next 12 months or more!

The banks make money, because gold goes up!

The dollar will lose value because the credit rating of the Fed will be rated lower. The Fed won't be able to borrow free money from the IMF because it is too high of risk. The Fed WILL borrow money at a higher interest rate from the IMF and will only be able to lend it to banks at a higher rate. The banks will have to lend at a higher rate. That process will reduce the amount of lending, increasing the cost of doing business and that will drive gold higher.

The cost of production of gold will increase too.

- Geowizard


  
geowizard
01:44:10 Sun
Dec 15 2013

Offline
posts
Reply
Re: Thoughts on gold prices.


Behind the scenes:

In November, Treasury Secretary Lew visited Japan and China to visit with leaders there. The reason was to discuss their devaluation of their currencies to gain a more favorable position in global trade. Devaluation of currencies has a negative impact on the US. We have to compete in the same global market as Asia.

Last Tuesday, the Volker rule was passed. The Volker rule is named after Paul Volker, past Fed Chairman. He said it wasn't written by him. It requires stricter control and oversight of "risky proprietary banking investment".

The market started heading south on Wednesday.

- Geowizard

  
baub
16:30:56 Sun
Dec 15 2013

Offline
915 posts
Reply
Re: Thoughts on gold prices.

Good info, thanks Geo.
That could explain the recent ups and downs of gold.
Low prices trigger purchases and when the prices go up, most of the gold is sold at a profit and some is retained with the actual net cost of the retained gold going down.
Do this enough and you could either keep the gold for long term profits or whatever and take advantage of the market activity. That is, when you get spreads between highs and lows on a consistent basis, there's an opportunity for profit.

b

  
geowizard
19:07:27 Sun
Dec 15 2013

Offline
posts
Reply
Re: Thoughts on gold prices.

baub

You had inflation...

The Fed intervened...

You had a housing bubble...

The Fed intervened...

Then you had a market crash.

Then you had a housing crash...

The Fed intervened...

Then you had a gold bubble.

The fed intervened...

Then you had a market bubble...

Then a gold crash.

Next... :confused: ...You guessed it... a market crash...

It's crashes and bubbles...and intervention

- Geowizard

  
Gold_Nuggets
19:56:21 Sun
Dec 15 2013

Offline
posts

Reply
Re: Thoughts on gold prices.

I could be wrong, wouldn't be the 1st time and probably not the last time either. But it sure seems to me that the Feds are playing games with all of the markets. They create a scenario that will cause a "bubble" and the markets respond with a bubble. Later they create a scenario to cause a "crash" and the markets respond with a market crash. Each time this happens, they are looking for a desired response from their creative efforts and the markets respond like they predicted. We can all see it happening, but seem to be powerless to change the results. One more step in the direction of total government control of every aspect of our lives by and for "intervention for the good of the people" . Sounds waaay to familiar to me from reading about history of other nations. JMHO......:confused:

  
baub
17:50:03 Mon
Dec 16 2013

Offline
915 posts
Reply
Re: Thoughts on gold prices.

Good point.

  
geowizard
18:17:56 Mon
Dec 16 2013

Offline
posts
Reply
Re: Black Monday


On Black Monday, the market crashed.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)

There were reports of people jumping off tall buildings.

I distinctly remember a report of a man in Phoenix that hung himself. (sad)

The Merry-go-round is still turning. Life goes on!

I prefer the solitary life of mining. In the remote quiet places of Alaska, each day passes without knowledge of whether a nuclear holocaust is happening or not.

Once in a while I check to see if the Merry-go-round is still turning.

- Geowizard

  
geowizard
21:04:28 Wed
Dec 18 2013

Offline
posts
Reply
Re: Black Monday


Today, outgoing Fed Chairman Bernanke held a press conference. :smile:

Certain people have an uncontrollable (subconscious) response when they lie or are deceptive under questioning.

i.e. they stutter, cannot control normal breathing pattern and wiggle in their seat. :gonetoofar:

- Geowizard

  
geowizard
21:44:07 Wed
Dec 18 2013

Offline
posts
Reply
Re: Black Monday


BTW,

Could the Fed be deceptive? :confused:

Could the fed say they're tapering and not actually taper BUT buy more bonds - driving the market higher to create the ILLUSION that the "market likes" the taper?

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/fed-pulls-trigger-on-tapering--will-trim-bond-buying-by--10b-a-month-200436321.html

If you DON'T think so, I have some excellent beach property for sale!

- Geowizard

  
Rod_Seiad
01:44:31 Thu
Dec 19 2013

Offline
1 posts
Reply
Re: Thoughts on gold prices.

I need help figuring this out, anybody.

As the spot lowers toward it's average of $700.

Many small-scale mines shutdown operations. Leasee's see their bottom-lines differently than do mine owners. Fixed costs of ownership don't seem to mind the $700 spot whereas the contract miner's variable costs turn him upside down.

Soooo, owning the ground while selling-off the equipment and dropping labor will result? Looks probable.

Now, if mine owner stores his gold below ground unmined. He easily waits for the market to improve (always does). But the actual miner goes broke.





  
geowizard
13:06:38 Thu
Dec 19 2013

Offline
posts
Reply
Re: Thoughts on gold prices.


  
Rod_Seiad
15:51:15 Thu
Dec 19 2013

Offline
1 posts
Reply
Re: Thoughts on gold prices.

That's nice for the 72%.

At this moment spot is in the $1100s and trending lower.

Truth be known, rarely do miners agree with the majority anyway.

Will the Ophir Gold Mines be operating within the average spot price of $600 - $800?


  
geowizard
02:19:01 Fri
Dec 20 2013

Offline
posts
Reply
Re: Thoughts on gold prices.


You wouldn't believe me if I told you. :confused:

- Geowizard

  
waveaction
18:49:13 Fri
Dec 20 2013

Offline
66 posts
Feeding the Dredge" width=100 height=100>
Reply
Re: Thoughts on gold prices.

pmbull.com could not have said it better today.

Dec. 20, 2013 10:30 AM EST - Buy Fear / Sell Greed
The taper was only $10 Billion of $85 Billion per month. This was nothing more than perception management by the Fed. Nothing has fundamentally changed. Sentiment is terrible. Time for Gold and Silver to move higher?

  
dickb
04:44:17 Sat
Dec 21 2013

Offline
102 posts
Reply
Re: Thoughts on gold prices.

Might be time to buy physical gold?

Dickb

  
Rod_Seiad
16:43:31 Sat
Dec 21 2013

Offline
1 posts
Reply
Re: Thoughts on gold prices.

I think it's a good time to rethink, rewrite, and toss out some mining contracts for 2014.

The high volume operations not so much. Start-ups and low margin miners can't support mine owners at $1000 spot.

Whatever cash or non-gold asset I can gamble with will be looking for ground to acquire from folks who need to head a different direction. It'll be more of a wait and see holding pattern.

Debt loads for miners (not owners) ought to be erased. The revenue/debt ratio that worked at above average spot prices can devour small-scale miners at average spot. Percentage agreements are out the window. Day-wage plus expenses is looking best to me.

  
bababooey
16:56:46 Sat
Dec 21 2013

Offline
posts
Reply
Re: Thoughts on gold prices.

from a chart tecnical sight,

if the double bottom (low june 27 and dec 19) do not hold, it will get directly to the first real support line @ $1000, its also a huge psychological mark.

gold weekly chart 5 years


my personel thinking is, some time around end 2014 gold will tank to the second support line @ around $650

gold monthly chart 15 years

[1 edits; Last edit by bababooey at 16:58:01 Sat Dec 21 2013]

  

Pages: [ 1 2 3 ]

[ Notify of replies made to this post ][ Print ][ Send To Friend ] [ Watch ] [ < ] [ Add Reply ] [ > ]

 Total Members: 11956

  • Can start a new thread. (Everyone)
  • Can't start a new poll. (Mods & Admins)
  • Can add a reply. (Everyone)
  • Can't edit your posts.(Everyone Registered)
  • Register :: Log In :: Administrators

    The time is now 22:18:05 Sun Oct 17 2021

    Powered By BbBoard V1.4.2
    © 2001-2007 BbBoy.net
    :: :: Thoughts on gold prices.

    [Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

    [Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]