smiley, everyone ~ here's what I do....on a sheet of paper I note the teams that had byes the previous week (supposedly about 70% win the following week after the rest, but plenty of exceptions).
It's not determinative, but it is why I picked the Packers (wrongly) last week.
I also list the two teams who played on the Monday night prior to Sunday's games. Supposedly about 63% of 'em lose cause of the shortened practice week.
Then on any day as late as Wednesday I get Jay Novacek's picks. His record is actually only fair.
His reasoning usually makes a lot of sense. At MSNBC's NFL front page:http://www.msnbc.com/id/3032875/
And then sometimes I check the picks of the "experts" at ESPN....these 8 experts are mostly former players, and their year to date records are at the bottom of the page so you know how good they are....they have mislead me at least three times this season into picking teams that later lost.
They give no reasoning, just name the team each thinks will win.
Thing is their picks don't appear until Saturday...sometimes a few wait till Sunday morning:http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/index